Armed conflict and climate change driving global economic uncertainty: WEF

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025 warns wars and extreme weather are buffeting economic confidence.

Armed conflict and extreme weather driven by climate change are viewed as the top risks for the global economy in 2025, according to a new report.

The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2025, released on Wednesday, warns that wars and extreme weather are buffeting economic confidence.

State-based armed conflict is most likely to present a “material crisis on a global scale” this year, according to 23 percent of respondents. A further 14 percent said climate change-led extreme weather events pose the greatest risk.

Published ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting of world leaders and economic elite in Davos on January 20, the report polled more than 900 global risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders.

A global risk is defined by the survey as a condition that would negatively affect a significant proportion of global gross domestic product, population or natural resources. Experts were surveyed in September and October.

Misinformation and disinformation are viewed as the most severe global risk over the coming two years, matching the ranking in the 2024 report. Extreme weather events ranked second and state-based armed conflict is viewed as the third biggest threat.

Over the next decade, extreme weather events remain the biggest concern, followed by biodiversity loss, critical change to the Earth’s systems and a shortage of natural resources.

High stakes

The WEF survey showed that 52 percent of respondents anticipate an “unsettled” global outlook over the next two years.

A further 31 percent of respondents expect a “turbulent” backdrop. Five percent worry that a “stormy outlook” is likely.

“Adding together these three categories of responses shows a combined four percentage point increase from last year, indicating a heightened pessimistic outlook for the world to 2027,” the report stated.

“In a world marked by deepening divides and cascading risks, global leaders have a choice: to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding instability,” WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek said in a statement. “The stakes have never been higher.”

Syria, the “terrible humanitarian situation in Gaza,” and the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will be a focus at an annual WEF gathering next week, according to WEF President and CEO Borge Brende.