US calls for post-conflict vision as Gaza ceasefire nears

Hamas has recruited nearly as many fighters as it has lost amid Israel’s war on Gaza, US official says.

Hamas has recruited almost as many new fighters as it has lost in its 16-month full-scale war with Israel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

Washington’s top diplomat made the assertion during a speech on Tuesday in which he reiterated the Biden administration’s stance that Hamas cannot be defeated by “a military campaign alone”.

The comments come amid hope that a ceasefire deal is close. However, plans for the post-conflict period remain vague amid complex and competing ambitions.

“Without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for the Palestinians, Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back,” Blinken told the Atlantic Council think tank.

“That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since October 7th.  Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that “total victory” over Hamas and destruction of the armed group is a major goal of his country’s war in Gaza.

However, analysts and even Israeli military officials and politicians have questioned the likelihood of achieving that aim.

Last month, Yair Golan, a former member of parliament and current chairman of Israel’s Democrats, said the war must end “with a political settlement”.

Post-conflict blues

Speaking on the ongoing negotiations, Blinken said “I believe we will get a ceasefire”.

On Tuesday, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said negotiations to bring the conflict to an end are in their final stages, while cautioning against setting expectations too high until there is an official announcement.

The ceasefire deal being hammered out is believed to include three stages, involving a halt of hostilities and exchange of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners.

The final phase is understood to include discussion around an alternative government to Hamas and plans to rebuild Gaza, which has been devastated.

However, the plans are vague. The Palestinians, Arab states and Israel still need to agree on a vision for post-war Gaza.

Blinken said Washington was of the view that the Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to “help establish and run an interim administration for the enclave”.

Meanwhile, Israel would need security guarantees and billions of dollars would need to be found for rebuilding.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, speaking on Wednesday at the annual meeting of the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, said a “ceasefire is the prerequisite for peace, but it is not peace.”

“We need to move forward now towards a two-state solution. And since one of the two states exists, which is Israel, we need to build the other state, which is Palestine,” he stated.