Polls show Latino support growing for Trump, experts cite economy, immigration

DENVER, Colorado — While Latino voters have tended to vote for Democratic candidates, national polling shows a shift in how Latinos may vote this election. According to the Pew Research Center, 61% of Latinos voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, and 36% voted for former President Donald Trump. 

New polling and political scientists suggest the level of support for Vice President Kamala Harris could fall as low as 50%. The numbers have been declining since 2016, but this election may show a more significant shift in voting habits. 

MSU Professor and Chair of Political Science Robert Preuhs said that while Democrats still have the larger margin with Latinos, the margin is shrinking. 

“That little shift can be attributed to what we are seeing nationally, in terms of the electorate broadly,” Preuhs said. “Latinos are concerned about the economy. There is growing concern about border security and both of those issues are beneficial to Republicans.”

Preuhs said Latinos are prioritizing border security more than they have in the past. It further compounds when looking at the current administration’s position of not finding new solutions for paths to citizenship for those who have arrived in the country and have some sort of status in the United States. 

“The Biden administration has gone back and forth a little bit in terms of both, being seen as too open and having a border that is too porous,” Preuhs said. “But really not too much movement on things that are important like paths to citizenship for DACA or recipients for instance. So, there is conflicting cues from the Democratic party.”

In the polling conducted, Latinos also cited concerns about the economy with voters essentially “placing blame on the current administration” for the rising inflation and housing costs. 

“There is this kind of discontent about the economy,” Preuhs said. “Inflation has been subsiding, but prices are still really high. We have lots of inequality, and what we see right now is essentially voters placing blame on the current administration and looking for someone else.”

An important caveat, Preuhs said is that there is some variation in political opinions and perspectives due to country of origin. For instance, Mexican Americans tend to have stronger support for the Democratic candidates while Cuban Americans tend to lean more Republican. 

The Colorado Hispanic Republicans said from speaking with voters, immigration and the economy are the reasons many are citing they may shift from voting Democratic to Republican. 

“Hispanics that have come into America legally and have actually become Americans,” Raymond Garcia, Chairman of the Colorado Hispanic Republicans, said. “They are the ones most against illegal immigration. When they do it right, they do it correctly. They have a love for the country. They respect the rule of law.”

Garcia said most Latinos have traditionally voted Democratic, but he said that’s because there is little voter engagement with the community. He works to do outreach with people who either don’t cast ballots or aren’t registered to vote. 

“[Latinos] have been told all their lives that they should be Democrat, but when we actually talk to them and they realize the Democrat party does not align with their beliefs and the Republican party absolutely aligns with their belief, overwhelmingly they switch over,” Garcia said. 

Garcia not only “totally agrees” with the polls but said that if anything, they aren’t showing the extent of the shift in Latinos, considered the second-largest voter group in the United States. 

“The economy is hurting everybody,” Garcia said. “Everybody is hurting right now. When your groceries are twice as expensive and gas is twice as expensive, people can’t make ends meet. And we’re working and working, and your money is not going as far as it used to. When it’s hitting you in the pocketbook, you wake up quickly.”