Chad’s presidency attacked: Coup attempt, Boko Haram or ‘drunk’ fighters?

N’Djamena, Chad – Chad’s capital city is still smarting after deadly gun battles erupted on Wednesday night between security forces and more than a dozen armed fighters who brazenly stormed the presidential palace. At least 19 people were killed.

Businesses and schools opened as usual on Thursday, and most people went to work, but there was a more heightened security presence on the streets of N’Djamena – a city already teeming with soldiers. Military tanks dotted the city centre, and roads leading to the palace complex were closed.

The assault comes weeks after controversial parliamentary elections, in which opposition parties boycotted the vote. They accused President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s military-turned-civilian government of trying to legitimise his rule.

The attack also followed Chad’s surprising expulsion of hundreds of French troops in December. France, a former colonial power and a close ally, has operated military bases in the country for decades.

Conflicting reports about who Wednesday’s assailants might be are floating around on social media, adding to the confusion as government officials attempt to make light of the threat. Here’s what we know:

What happened?

A group of 24 heavily armed men attacked the president’s office at around 8:45pm (19:45 GMT) on Wednesday, government spokesman and Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah said, speaking on Chad state TV.

The men were armed with knives, not guns, he said. At least 18 of the attackers were killed in the ensuing gun battle, while one member of the Chadian security force also died. Three other security officials were injured, the minister added, two of them seriously.

Videos of the aftermath of the shooting showed bloodied bodies on the floor, close to a white pickup truck. Koulamallah said the attackers were killed after managing to penetrate the camp surrounding the presidency.

“I was impressed by the military deployment. We have a very good army, and the Chadians can sleep soundly. Our country is well guarded,” he said.

President Deby was in the presidential complex at the time of the attack. Hours before at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Deby had met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was in the country for a state visit.

At least six people have been arrested in connection with the attack, although it’s unclear yet who they are. The minister said investigations are ongoing.

Why is the country tense?

The landlocked Central African nation has long experienced instability in the form of rebel movements, armed groups, and coups d’etat. Although Chad is rich in oil, a stagnant economy and harsh climate put it on the list of Africa’s poorest countries.

Those who seize power often work hard to quell rebellions by distributing jobs to former rebels and political opposition members, Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel programme at German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera. “Chad’s budget is spent on patronage to secure government survival,” he said.

Deby, a military general, seized power in April 2021 after rebels killed the strongman president – his father, Idriss Deby Itno – on the battlefield. Before his death, the older Deby ruled Chad with an iron fist for 30 years.

Although the military government promised and delivered on elections, the younger Deby’s tenure has been characterised by turbulence. He has struggled to attract popular support in the country, as many believe he seized power unconstitutionally and merely extended the Deby dynasty. Experts describe his government’s December decision to expel French troops as a way to gain support amid widespread anti-France sentiments in former West and Central African colonies.

Deby’s government is also accused of crackdowns: After young people and opposition parties took to the streets in October 2022 to protest a delay in the promised elections, security forces clamped down on them, killing 128 people and arresting many more.

In May 2024, Deby swept the presidential polls, winning more than 60 percent of the vote to the anger of opposition groups that described the exercise as fraudulent.

In December, the country held controversial parliamentary elections for the first time since 2015. Although government officials hailed the vote as a key step towards ending military rule, it was marked by low turnout and opposition allegations of fraud. Several political parties boycotted the vote.

Who attacked and what are authorities saying?

There are several conflicting theories about who might have been responsible for Wednesday’s attack. Some have blamed the armed group Boko Haram, while others say it might be a military coup.

Boko Haram fighters have launched incursions into the country since 2013, operating from their base in the Lake Chad Basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.

Although the group was originally founded in Nigeria, porous borders allowed it to expand operations. In 2015, Boko Haram suicide bombers targeted police buildings and markets in N’Djamena in a series of attacks. More than 50 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured.

Security sources told the AFP and Reuters news agencies that Wednesday’s attack was likely by the group.

“It wouldn’t be far-fetched for Boko Haram to try doing this, though this is a massive security lapse at the palace,” Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based security analyst at Control Risks, an intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera.

“They might want to retaliate against Operation Haskanite,” she added, referencing a security operation President Deby personally launched in October. The aim is to track and neutralise hundreds of Boko Haram fighters who attacked and killed more than 40 Chadian troops in the Lake Chad Basin area on October 28.

However, government officials have downplayed the Boko Haram theory. In an interview with Chad’s state broadcaster hours after the attack, spokesman Koulamallah said the attackers were “probably not” Boko Haram members or part of an organised armed group. He described them instead as drunken “Pieds Nickeles” – a reference to a French comic featuring hapless crooks.

But a random pair of crooks would find it difficult to attack the seat of power in N’Djamena. The city, on any day, is crawling with camouflage-wearing, gun-toting soldiers hanging from military trucks.

Could it be other armed groups?

Several other armed groups threaten Chad’s stability, notably rebel fighters of the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), located near the Libyan border.

The group, led by longtime rebel Mahamat Mahadi Ali, aims to topple the Chadian government under Deby.

Late president Deby succumbed to wounds suffered during a battle against the rebels as they pushed towards N’Djamena in 2021.

At the time, FACT vowed to strike again after the younger Deby took power. “Chad is not a monarchy,” the group said in a statement posted online. “There can be no dynastic devolution of power in our country,” the statement added, with FACT threatening to depose the new leader.

On the other hand, Ochieng said, reports of a coup could also be credible.

Wednesday’s attacks could be an “inside job” with the aim of “assassinating President Deby” and taking over power, she added.

Coups are not uncommon in Chad. The late Deby seized power by deposing the dictator Hissene Habre.

In 2008, thousands of fighters of the rebel group Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) under leader Mahamat Nouri attacked N’Djamena to depose Deby but were repelled.

Did the French troop exit cause a vacuum?

Analysts say Chad is likely to face more attacks like this one. Armed groups might try to take advantage of a security vacuum that could open up as French troops continue with their exit from the country.

Although Chad signed a deal with Hungary in October and is expected to welcome 200 Hungarian soldiers who will support and train local forces, it’s not clear when the Hungarians will arrive.

Chad is in a “fragile” state, Laessing said. “Deby asking the French to leave in December was a gamble. It gave him a popularity boost,” he said. “But obviously, the French military was the major regime protection he had, not just by their force presence, but also intelligence sharing.”

The former French colony hosted France’s last military bases in the Sahel, but at the end of November, ended defence and security agreements with Paris, calling them “obsolete”. About 1,000 French military personnel were stationed in the country and are in the process of being withdrawn after France fell out with three other Sahelian countries governed by military governments hostile to Paris: Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Ochieng said the fact that Chad was downplaying an attack by Boko Haram could mean some officials might want to blame an external actor for sabotaging their efforts.

“I suspect there will be opportunistic groups that will try to make it seem like France is sabotaging Chad,” she said. “We’ve seen similar claims in Niger, Burkina Faso, right after their respective coups and demands for French forces to leave.”

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