What will happen to al-Assad’s Captagon empire now?

Following its ousting of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria last week, the opposition alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) invited international reporters to witness vast stockpiles and clandestine factories of the illicit drug Captagon.

Over the past decade, the al-Assad government has been accused of being the principal purveyor of Captagon, a highly addictive, amphetamine-like pill popular in wealthy Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia.

The profits propped up state finances, battered by sanctions and war, to the point that Syria has been described as a “narco-state”.

Led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, HTS and Syria’s new administration appear determined to make it clear they do not approve of Syria’s drug trade.

“HTS and Julani thus far have sought to put distance between this new transitional government and the Captagon trade,” Caroline Rose, an expert on Syrian drug trafficking at the New Lines Institute, told Al Jazeera.

“This is why we’ve seen several laboratory and warehouse raids on regime-aligned facilities as well as Julani referring to the regime’s illicit history of Captagon production. They may not be able to rein in all low-scale production and cross-border trafficking, but there will be a strategy to crack down on industrial-scale production and encourage Syrians to participate in the formal, licit economy.”

With al-Assad gone, what happens to the Captagon business now?

What is the history of Captagon production?

Captagon was the brand name for fenethylline, originally developed by German pharmaceutical firm Degussa in the 1960s to treat narcolepsy and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Its circulation was restricted by the United Nations in 1986 because of its undesirable side effects, including anxiety and depression, and its addictive potential, although certain medical uses are still allowed.

By then, however, Captagon had already picked up a following as a recreational drug in the Middle East, as it also leaves users feeling confident and alert along with a sensation of euphoria.

During the Cold War, communist Bulgaria was the centre of Captagon production.

Bulgaria’s powerful secret service, the DS (Committee for State Security), had a sideline in smuggling via the state-owned import-export company Kintex: running guns to African war zones, heroin into Europe and Captagon to the Middle East.

Captagon initially survived communism’s eventual collapse as out-of-work spies muscled in on the criminal underworld.

But Bulgarian authorities finally dismantled the fenethylline factories in the early 2000s as the country joined the European Union, and manufacturing migrated from the Balkans to the Middle East.

How did Captagon production take off in Syria?

Once home to an established pharmaceuticals industry, Syria became the world’s largest producer of Captagon.

Unrest against al-Assad, whose family ruled since seizing power in a coup d’etat in 1970, descended into a bloodbath in 2011, with armed groups taking territory.

At first, it was some armed groups cooking Captagon but, as the government clawed back territory with the aid of its allies, it also took control of smuggling routes and production facilities.

According to customs officers, shipments have been disguised as rubber tyres, steel cogwheels, industrial paper rolls, sofas or even plastic fruit, routed through Europe and Africa to disguise their origin before reaching the Gulf.

The value of intercepted shipments was estimated at $5.7bn in 2021, several times greater than Syria’s legitimate exports, worth a mere $860m in 2020.

Captagon became Syria’s most valuable export, providing billions in profit for “regime-aligned networks and individuals … either within the leadership of the regime’s security apparatus, Syria’s commercial sector and business elite, and/or family members of Bashar al-Assad”, according to Rose.

Maher al-Assad, Bashar’s brother and commander of the Fourth Division, has been identified as a key player, profiting from protecting shipments through Latakia, a former Assad stronghold.

Gang leaders and businessmen, too, were reportedly allowed to run smuggling operations in exchange for their loyalty.

Despite the al-Assad Captagon trade, last year Syria was welcomed back into the Arab League, having been expelled for its massacres of protesters, possibly on the understanding that narco-traffic would be reined in.

How dangerous is Captagon?

Upon swallowing, fenethylline metabolises into amphetamine and theophylline, a weaker stimulant similar to caffeine. The overall effect is more potent than amphetamine alone, but the slower onset makes it slightly less addictive, as well as being softer on blood pressure.

However, most of what passes for Captagon nowadays is counterfeit – and far more dangerous.

“There has been no fenethylline, the original formulation, in Captagon tablets for years,” noted Andrew Cunningham of the EU Drugs Agency.

“The results of forensic analysis show that they contain mainly amphetamine, and have done for years.”

Amphetamine, and especially methamphetamine, commonly known as crystal meth, is significantly more hazardous to the human body than fenethylline. In 2020, the International Narcotics Control Board reported that Syria imported 50 tonnes of pseudoephedrine, a key ingredient for meth manufacturing.

Is this the end of the Captagon trade?

It is highly unlikely.

At a May 1, 2023, meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Amman, Syria agreed to cooperate with Jordan and Iraq to identify sources of drug production and smuggling, according to Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

A week later, a high-profile Syrian drug smuggler and his family were killed in an air raid, attributed to Jordan, in southern Syria.

But those moves, and the fall of al-Assad, do not mean the appetite for Captagon is gone, rather the trade will now shift, according to Rose.

“Traffickers will seek out new transit and production sites with low risks … many of them closer to destination markets in the Gulf or ports that can easily access them.”

This is what is known as the “balloon effect”. Authorities suppress the drug business in one place, so it reappears somewhere else – for instance, the move from Bulgaria to Syria in the 2000s.

Where will Captagon production move to next?

It is too early to say, but clandestine factories have already been uncovered as far afield as Sudan and Germany.

“I think that Iraq, Turkiye, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Kuwait and even countries in the EU are suited to inherit the Captagon trade,” Rose said.

“We’ve already seen a spillover of trafficking and production beyond Syria in the last two to three years, as criminal networks have sought to diversify their operations.”

Experts suggest the demand could be filled by methamphetamine, a great deal of which reportedly already comes from Iran and Afghanistan.

Iraq has become a drug hub in recent years as the number of meth users there skyrockets, according to reports.

Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley has been a source of heroin and hashish for nearly a century and flourished during the 1975-1990 civil war, during which Syrian troops occupied Bekaa and reportedly levied a “tax” on every kilo of hash or heroin passing through.

Since then, the same family clans trading hash in Bekaa have expanded their businesses to Captagon, often working closely with Syrian officials.

Additional reporting by Radwan Mortada

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