Could Israel’s Netanyahu be about to agree to a Gaza ceasefire?

Indications that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be ready to agree to end the assault on Gaza that has killed 44,800 people – with thousands more lost under the rubble and presumed dead – could raise hopes of an end to the war.

After meeting with Netanyahu this week, United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said he “got the sense” Netanyahu was “ready to do a deal”. Until now, Netanyahu has been seen as blocking any chances of a ceasefire.

In September, Netanyahu’s 11th-hour objections sank a ceasefire deal that was reportedly near being signed. Documents he used to justify his decision to continue bombing Gaza were later found by Israeli authorities to have been forged.

Since then, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for both men for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Gaza since the war began in October 2023.

On Wednesday, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and expressing support for the work of UNRWA (UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees), which Israel banned from operating in Israel and the Palestinian territory.

What would a ceasefire mean for people in Gaza?

Everything, particularly for those in the north.

Rumours that a ceasefire agreement may be close are near-constant among those trapped in the enclave, desperate for an end to the bombardment.

“In the last week, there have been two, maybe three occasions where the community around us erupted in cheers and whistling and applause because of rumours that there has been an agreed ceasefire,” Louise Waterbridge, senior emergency officer at the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), told Al Jazeera.

The north of Gaza remains under total Israeli siege, with 65,000 to 75,000 Palestinians trapped behind the siege lines, the UN estimates, as the Israeli military has prevented aid from reaching them. Israeli forces have essentially cut off the northern part of Gaza from the south.

Aid organisations have long warned of famine in Gaza, and many believe that it has already taken hold in north Gaza.

Is Netanyahu bending to international pressure?

It’s unlikely.

Israel increasingly sees itself as “defiant” of the international community as it continues to launch attacks on Syria, effectively annexed areas of southern Lebanon and additional areas of the occupied Golan Heights in Syria.

Just before the UNGA vote this week, Israel dismissed UN objections to its invasion of Syrian territory, saying its actions are necessary to “secure” its borders from the buffer zone that has been there, policed by the UN, since 1974.

Israel has also shelled UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, refused UN demands to withdraw from Palestine’s occupied territory and claims that any criticism of its actions is anti-Semitic, including the legal process against it in the ICC and the genocide case brought against it by South Africa in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

So, why would Netanyahu agree to a ceasefire deal now?

Because now is a politically opportune time for him, observers say.

Until now, Netanyahu has refused a ceasefire, instead claiming to be waiting for an ill-defined “absolute victory”, a promise dismissed as “gibberish” in August by Gallant.

However, with the fall of the Syrian regime, which was backed by Iran, Netanyahu may see an opportunity.

Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, Netanyahu hailed the collapse of what he described as regional nemesis Iran’s “axis of evil” following the fall of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, saying: “The absolute victory they mocked is at hand.”

What is Hamas’s position?

In the most recent negotiations in Egypt, Hamas has reportedly agreed that Israeli troops can remain within Gaza. It had previously said complete withdrawal is a non-negotiable part of any ceasefire deal.

According to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Hamas has now accepted that Israeli troops can stay in Gaza “temporarily”.

They would remain in their existing fortified positions along the Philadelphi Corridor – controlling access between Egypt and Gaza – and the Netzarim Corridor, which splits north Gaza from south, during a 60-day “pause” in the fighting.

The newspaper also reported that under the prospective deal, Hamas would release 30 vulnerable captives from Israel named on a list it has provided to Egyptian authorities.

In return, Israel would free Palestinian prisoners and allow for an increased flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly said Israel is blocking aid from entering Gaza, something Israel denies.

Has Netanyahu prolonged the war on Gaza for his own ends?

Almost everyone thinks so.

The families of the Israeli captives being held in Gaza, Netanyahu’s domestic and international allies, and many of his political opponents, have all accused Netanyahu of prolonging the war in Gaza to avoid accountability.

Like the corruption charges that Netanyahu is facing in court in Tel Aviv, as well as any investigation into his alleged failings during the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, during which 1,139 people died and about 250 were taken captive.

In June, as US ceasefire proposals floundered, even his principal ally, US President Joe Biden, accused Netanyahu of prolonging the war on Gaza for political reasons.

Both former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and one of Netanyahu’s principal allies, Benny Gantz, accused Netanyahu of the same.

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