Affiliate marketing spend will pass $10 billion this year in the US. Here’s what’s driving it

“Affiliate, to my mind, is one of the most under-discussed and underappreciated spending areas in media and advertising,” our analyst Max Willens said on a recent EMARKETER webinar. US affiliate marketing spend will reach $10.72 billion this year and drive $307.27 billion in ecommerce, per our forecast. Driving that spend is a persistently value-conscious consumer, a growing creator economy, and a pivot to publishers with first-party data. Here are five factors contributing to affiliate marketing’s success.

1. Consumers are increasingly value-conscious

Consumers expect lower prices and loyalty offers.

• 79% are making extra effort to buy discounted or on-sale items, per Antavo.
• 61% are more interested than ever in shopping at discount retailers.
• 55% are joining more loyalty programs this year.

“These are all things that are very positive indicators for affiliate, because these are things that affiliate does really well,” Willens said.

2. Publishers are finding affiliate strategies outside of Google

Google’s Helpful Content Update, intended to keep generative AI spam under control, and its site reputation abuse policy negatively impacted affiliate marketers. Meanwhile, AI Overviews threaten affiliate publishers by burying affiliate results underneath AI Overviews that don’t drive site traffic, Willens said.

“The publishers and advertisers who are going to win in affiliate in the future are the ones who are going to be less reliant on Google,” Willens said. That’s good news for both creators and publishers with rich first-party data because they don’t rely on Google to reach the right consumers.

3. The creator economy keeps growing

Creators are more effective at driving purchases on social media than brand, retailer, or publisher accounts, according to our March 2024 survey, and creators are seeing the appeal of affiliate marketing.

The number of creators registered on Awin’s affiliate marketing platform grew 80% YoY, according to Awin data. But that influx is creating increased competition, resulting in a 40% decrease in the revenue per creator, Willens noted.

While that competition may be a challenge for creators, for advertisers it means there are more partnership opportunities.

4. Consumers recognize and trust affiliate marketing

More than half of US consumers (55.1%) trust affiliate marketing at least sometimes, our survey found. “This is especially true of younger consumers,” Willens said.

Nearly 4 in 10 Gen Zers (39.1%) find affiliate marketing at least moderately influential to their purchases, compared with 35.2% of millennials, 24.5% of Gen Xers, and 16.1% of baby boomers, our survey found.

5. First-party data is unlocking personalization

As third-party cookies decline, marketers are prioritizing first-party data to reach consumers. This first-party data collected by retailers, financial institutions, and other commerce media players can help affiliate marketers match the right product and the right deal to the right consumer.

Affiliate deals linked to loyalty programs, credit cards, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) services not only help to drive higher conversions, but also help marketers from over-discounting to consumers that would be willing to buy at a higher price, Willens said.

Watch the full webinar.

This was originally featured in the EMARKETER Daily newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

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