Why is the CD8 congressional race expected to be so close?

DENVER — Ballots for the November election hit the mail at the end of this week.

The closest Congressional race will be Congressional District 8 (CD8) in Adams and Weld Counties, with a sliver of Larimer County.

Tuesday at 6 p.m., Next Presents: The Race for Congress.

Why is the race between Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo and Republican challenger Gabe Evans expected to be so close?

The voter makeup of CD8 is the closest of all Congressional Districts in Colorado.

• Unaffiliated: 222,751 (50%)
• Democratic: 113,374 (25%)
• Republican: 101,914 (23%)
• Libertarian: 4,316 (1%)

Here is why that 1% Libertarian population is important.

In 2022, Caraveo beat Republican challenger Barb Kirkmeyer by 1,632 votes.

The Libertarian candidate that year, metal band sound guy Dan Ward, received 9,280 votes.

This year, Libertarian candidates agreed to drop out of races if the Republican in that race would sign a pledge to advocate for Libertarian values, by signing a pledge.

Evans signed a watered-down version of the pledge last month, and the Libertarian candidate in CD8 dropped out and endorsed Evans.

The watered-down version of the pledge is full of issues that Republicans already support.

Though, if Libertarian voters follow the endorsement of their former candidate, it could be enough to sway the race.