January 23, 2022

Model predicts COVID-19 in New Hampshire will rise through February, drop quickly – WMUR Manchester

New models predict that the omicron variant of COVID-19 in New Hampshire will lag behind the national trend, with cases and deaths climbing before dropping off quickly.Researchers say the current models underscore what experts have learned about the omicron variant: that everything has been shortened. It displaced the delta variant quickly, it has a shorter incubation period, a shorter infection length and might fall off as quickly as it surged.COVID-19 projection models from the University of Washington suggest that more than 50% of the U.S. population could be infected with the highly contagious omicron variant in the coming weeks. Estimated daily case numbers in New Hampshire, including those not necessarily tested, are projected to climb for a few more weeks, even though numbers are already peaking and starting to drop in some areas of the country. “Many states who have done a much better job of controlling the virus and have a higher vaccination rate, their peak will be a little bit delayed,” said Dr. Ali Mokdad, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.The institute has been creating COVID-19 projections for locations across the globe since early in the pandemic.”COVID-19 — the first case was diagnosed here in Seattle, and our hospital was the first hospital to take care of COVID-19 patients,” Mokdad said.The impact on hospitals lags behind case numbers, with the daily census projected to peak around Feb. 17.”We are going to have a difficult month, especially when it comes to hospitalizations,” Mokdad said. “Many hospitals will be overwhelmed.”COVID-19-related deaths are expected to peak at the end of January and start to turn around.”By the beginning of April and May, we should be at a very low infection rate, very low hospitalization rates, and we should be very kind of normal,” Mokdad said.Researchers said the key remains getting people up-to-date on vaccinations, including boosters, to keep people out of hospitals. Those efforts will also have to continue after the omicron surge because the possibility of other variants remains.

New models predict that the omicron variant of COVID-19 in New Hampshire will lag behind the national trend, with cases and deaths climbing before dropping off quickly.

Researchers say the current models underscore what experts have learned about the omicron variant: that everything has been shortened. It displaced the delta variant quickly, it has a shorter incubation period, a shorter infection length and might fall off as quickly as it surged.

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COVID-19 projection models from the University of Washington suggest that more than 50% of the U.S. population could be infected with the highly contagious omicron variant in the coming weeks.

Estimated daily case numbers in New Hampshire, including those not necessarily tested, are projected to climb for a few more weeks, even though numbers are already peaking and starting to drop in some areas of the country.

“Many states who have done a much better job of controlling the virus and have a higher vaccination rate, their peak will be a little bit delayed,” said Dr. Ali Mokdad, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The institute has been creating COVID-19 projections for locations across the globe since early in the pandemic.

“COVID-19 — the first case was diagnosed here in Seattle, and our hospital was the first hospital to take care of COVID-19 patients,” Mokdad said.

The impact on hospitals lags behind case numbers, with the daily census projected to peak around Feb. 17.

“We are going to have a difficult month, especially when it comes to hospitalizations,” Mokdad said. “Many hospitals will be overwhelmed.”

COVID-19-related deaths are expected to peak at the end of January and start to turn around.

“By the beginning of April and May, we should be at a very low infection rate, very low hospitalization rates, and we should be very kind of normal,” Mokdad said.

Researchers said the key remains getting people up-to-date on vaccinations, including boosters, to keep people out of hospitals. Those efforts will also have to continue after the omicron surge because the possibility of other variants remains.

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